Walberg District looks better according to Walberg pollsters

by: chetly

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 01:49:49 AM EDT

Without seeing internal cross-tabs, which almost no campaign would ever release, polls should never be accepted as a matter of faith.  But according to Tim Walberg's pollsters, he's doing well, even in a tight environment for McCain.  According to the polls, he's hit the magic number of 50% (50-40) and while we expected undecideds to fall away from the incumbent, its unlikely the challenger could get them all. 

Of course, its early and many things are subject to change, but these numbers aren't dramatically different than even Schauer's pollsters were last month, at least in form and trends. If anything, Walberg has slightly gained ground despite two months of campaigning from Schauer. I doubt its as optimistic as Walberg makes it out to be, but I'd put this one in a safer category than the tighter Knollenberg-Peters race, which is tighter because of different demographics (and even there Knollenberg is showing staying power).

Walberg's press release below.

Memorandum

To: Interested Parties From: MI CD 7 Survey Results

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Despite the barrage of negative ads directed against him, Congressman Tim Walberg leads Mark Schauer 50%-40% according to our most recent congressional survey in the district, conducted on September 15 and 16 among 300 likely voters in the district. This represents a significant gain for Congressman Walberg, who was garnering 47% in our July survey. With his poll numbers now at 50%, Walberg enters the month of October with momentum.

Part of the reason for Walberg’s strong ballot number: he is well liked, with a 57% -29% favorable-unfavorable rating. By contrast, Schauer’s favorable-unfavorable is 33%-18%. With Schauer’s overall name ID significantly lower than Tim Walberg’s, Schauer runs the risk of a boomerang effect with every negative ad that he airs. While he attempts to raise Walberg’s unfavorable rating, he runs the risk of raising his own.

The top of the ticket is also providing a good overall environment, as Senator McCain is leading Senator Obama 55%-40% in this district.

Finally, the generic ballot yields a net positive for Republicans in this district. The generic Republican beats the generic Democrat 46%-41%. This means that Congressman Walberg is over-performing the generic, while Schauer is underperforming it.

National Research Inc. conducted a telephone survey in Michigan’s 7^th Congressional District on September 15-16, 2008. The survey was conducted among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.Interviews were stratified geographically to conform with voter turnout in the district.

National Research Inc. is a national political and corporate polling firm, whose client list includes Fortune 500 companies, members of Congress and State Legislatures, and political committees such as the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) and RGA (Republican Governors Association).